De Amerikaanse presidentsverkiezingen 2004

Nog tot de presidentsverkiezingen van 2008


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dinsdag, januari 13, 2004
Polarisatie VS
William Schneider, politiek analist van CNN, besprak in Inside Politics de verdeeldheid in de VS, en wat voor gevolg dat heeft voor de verkiezingen in november. Veel zal afhangen van de staten waar de winst van de Democraten of Republikeinen niet zeker is, de swing states:

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: How divided are we? The Gallup Organization has put together more than 40,000 interviews conducted during 2003 to try to come up with the answer. And the answer is: plenty divided. Ten years ago, during Bill Clinton's first year, Democrats had a nine-point lead over Republicans. Now, according to the interviews 45.5 percent of the country call themselves Republicans, or lean toward the GOP; 45.2 percent identify with or lean toward the Democrats. Can't get much closer than that.

With all those interviews, Gallup can do something you can't do with an ordinary pole. It can look at partisanship state by state.

Here's the map. Strong Republican states in red, strong Democratic states in blue. So how big is each party's electoral vote base now? The strong Republican states have 172 electoral votes. The strong Democratic states have 175. Still close.

Let's factor in states that just lean toward one of the parties. Suppose Bush carries all the blue states on this map, and the Democratic candidate carries all the red and pink states. How close would it be then?

The Republican ticket would have 250 electoral votes. The Democratic ticket 253, with 35 electoral votes in four states where neither party has any advantage: Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Washington state.


Spannend.




© Marc van Gestel 2003 - 2004